In the ever-shifting Oscar landscape, HAMNET has pulled off the biggest move in a month: overtaking what had seemed to be the prohibitive favorite, Paul Thomas Anderson’s ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER, in the Gold Derby odds for predicted Best Picture nominees.
The Shakespeare-inspired drama now leads the pack by a narrow margin, with a 96.8 percent chance to be nominated, compared to 95.8 percent for ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER. Directed by Oscar winner ChloΓ© Zhao, HAMNET is a deeply emotional dramatization of the real-world circumstances that may have inspired William Shakespeare’s Hamlet, and the Focus Features film, starring Paul Mescal and Jessie Buckley, has been on a remarkable trajectory since its festival debut.
The film occupied the top slot in September after its warm reception at the Telluride Film Festival, followed by winning the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival, but in early October, Anderson’s film surged to number one following a strong opening weekend and had held the spot until this past weekend. The two films are both considered locks for nominations and expected to be competing for top prizes throughout awards season, though the race is playing out differently across various categories.
For the predicted Best Director field, Anderson still has the lead over Zhao, while in the acting categories, Buckley leads the predicted Best Actress nominees and Leonardo DiCaprio continues to dominate Best Actor predictions for ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER. Despite HAMNET’s strong showing in Best Picture predictions, both Zhao and Mescal were overlooked in recent predictions for director and supporting acting categories, suggesting the film’s path to Oscar glory may be more complicated than its current frontrunner status suggests. HAMNET could see another boost when it opens nationwide on November 27, potentially widening its lead in what is shaping up to be a very close race just two months before the January 22 Oscar nominations, when voters will finally reveal whether this Shakespeare-inspired drama can maintain its momentum or if Anderson’s latest work will reclaim its crown.
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